‘Baby Steps’ Will Not Avert Climate Catastrophe, UN Warns

Spread the love

Original article by JESSICA CORBETT republished from Common Dreams under Creative Commons (CC BY-NC-ND 3.0).

Firefighters tackle forest fires near Porto Jofre, Mato Grosso State, Brazil, on November 13, 2023.  (Photo: Rogerio Florentino/AFP via Getty Images)

The United Nations assessment coincided with the release of “the world’s most comprehensive roadmap of how to close the global gap in climate action across sectors.”

That’s how United Nations Secretary-General António Guterres began his Tuesday remarks about a new U.N. Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) report on nationally determined contributions (NDCs), or countries’ plans to meet the goals of the Paris agreement, including its 1.5°C temperature target.

The UNFCCC analysis “provides yet more evidence that the world remains massively off track to limiting global warming to 1.5°C and avoiding the worst of climate catastrophe,” said Guterres. “As the report shows, global ambition stagnated over the past year and national climate plans are strikingly misaligned with the science.”

“COP28 must be the place to urgently close the climate ambition gap.”

Under current NDCs from the 195 Paris agreement parties, global greenhouse gas emissions are set to rise by nearly 9% by 2030, compared with 2010 levels, according to the analysis. While that’s a slight improvement on the 10.6% increase from last year’s assessment, it’s still nowhere near the cuts that experts say are needed.

The analysis of NDCs comes as scientists project that 2023 will be the hottest year in 125,000 years and just over two weeks before the U.N. Climate Change Conference (COP28) in Dubai, United Arab Emirates, a summit controversially led by Sultan Ahmed Al Jaber, CEO of the Abu Dhabi National Oil Company.

“As the reality of climate chaos pounds communities around the world—with ever fiercer floods, fires, and droughts—the chasm between need and action is more menacing than ever,” Guterres declared. “COP28 must be the place to urgently close the climate ambition gap.”

U.N. Climate Change Executive-Secretary Simon Stiell echoed Guterres’ call to action, stressing in a statement that the new assessment makes clear governments are merely “taking baby steps to avert the climate crisis.”

“It shows why governments must make bold strides forward at COP28 in Dubai, to get on track,” Stiell said. “This means COP28 must be a clear turning point. Governments must not only agree what stronger climate actions will be taken but also start showing exactly how to deliver them.”

The UNFCCC document was released on the same day as State of Climate Action 2023, which its crafters called “the world’s most comprehensive roadmap of how to close the global gap in climate action across sectors.”

Published under Systems Change Lab, the latter report highlights that only one of the dozens of indicators assessed, the share of electric vehicles in passenger car sales, is on track to meet its 2030 target.

As the publication details:

Recent rates of change for 41 of the 42 indicators across power, buildings, industry transport, forests and land, food and agriculture, technological carbon removal, and climate finance are not on track to reach their 1.5°C-aligned targets for 2030. Worryingly, 24 of those indicators are well off track, such that at least a twofold acceleration in recent rates of change will be required to achieve their 2030 targets. Another six indicators are heading in the wrong direction entirely. Within this subset of lagging indicators, the most recent year of data represents a concerning worsening relative to recent trends for three indicators, with significant setbacks in efforts to eliminate public financing for fossil fuels, dramatically reduce deforestation, and expand carbon pricing systems.

To get back on track, the international community must “dramatically increase growth in solar and wind power” while also phasing out “coal in electricity generation seven times faster—which is equivalent to retiring roughly 240 average-sized coal-fired power plants each year through 2030,” the report warns.

The publication also emphasizes the need for shifting to healthier, more sustainable diets eight times faster, increasing the coverage of rapid transit six times faster, reducing the annual rate of deforestation four times faster, and scaling up global climate finance by nearly $500 billion annually until 2030.

“Despite decades of dire warnings and wake-up calls, our leaders have largely failed to mobilize climate action anywhere near the pace and scale needed,” declared the report’s lead author, Sophie Boehm of the World Resources Institute (WRI). “Such delays leave us with very few routes to secure a livable future for all. There’s no time left to tinker at the edges. Instead, we need immediate, transformational changes across every single sector this decade.”

Every world leader is under pressure to ramp up efforts to cut emissions, including U.S. President Joe Biden, who on Tuesday received a letter from hundreds of scientists urging him to “increase the ambition of domestic climate action—including through accelerating a just and equitable clean energy transition, rejecting the expansion of new long-lived fossil fuel infrastructure, investing in climate resilience, and ramping up climate finance—while working toward the strongest possible agreement at COP28.”

The United States now ranks behind China as the top emitting country but still leads the world in cumulative planet-heating emissions. According to a U.S. government assessment released Tuesday, the nation is “warming faster than the global average,” and “the effects of human-caused climate change are already far-reaching and worsening across every region.”

Original article by JESSICA CORBETT republished from Common Dreams under Creative Commons (CC BY-NC-ND 3.0).

Continue Reading‘Baby Steps’ Will Not Avert Climate Catastrophe, UN Warns

UN Puts Out ‘Truly Damning Report Card’ for Climate Action Before Global Summits

Spread the love
Scientists protest at UK Parliament 5 September 2023.
Scientists protest at UK Parliament 5 September 2023.

Original article by JESSICA CORBETT republished from Common Dreams under Creative Commons (CC BY-NC-ND 3.0). 

“This report is a wake-up call to the injustice of the climate crisis and a pivotal opportunity to correct course,” said one expert.

“The United Nations’ polite prose glosses over what is a truly damning report card for global climate efforts. Carbon emissions? Still climbing. Rich countries’ finance commitments? Delinquent. Adaptation support? Lagging woefully behind.”

That’s how Ani Dasgupta, president and CEO of the World Resources Institute, began his response to a “global stocktake” report released Friday by the U.N. Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) ahead of two global summits.

“This report is a wake-up call to the injustice of the climate crisis and a pivotal opportunity to correct course,” Dasgupta continued. “We already knew the world is failing to meet its climate goals, but leaders now have a concrete blueprint underpinned by a mountain of evidence for how to get the job done.”

“There are a few bright spots worth celebrating,” he noted. “But overall, the report finds there are more gaps than progress—gaps that can only be erased by transformational change across systems like energy, food, land, and transport. The future of our planet depends on whether national leaders use this stark assessment as a catalyst for bold systems transformation.”

“This report makes clear that President Biden is squandering precious time every second he fails to take bold action on fossil fuels.”

The UNFCCC report comes nearly eight years after countries finalized the Paris climate agreement, which aims to keep global temperature rise this century below 2°C, relative to preindustrial levels, with a more ambitious target of 1.5°C.

“The global stocktake was designed under the Paris agreement to assess our global response to the climate crisis and chart a better way forward,” the UNFCCC explained Friday. “The global stocktake is held every five years and is intended to inform the next round of nationally determined contributions to be put forward by 2025.”

Data collection began in 2021, ultimately resulting in more than 170,000 pages of written submissions and over 252 hours of meetings and discussions. The new synthesis report summarizes 17 key technical findings from the discussions.

“I urge governments to carefully study the findings of the report and ultimately understand what it means for them and the ambitious action they must take next,” said U.N. Climate Change Executive Secretary Simon Stiell. “It’s the same for businesses, communities, and other key stakeholders. While the catalytic role of the Paris agreement and the multilateral process will remain vital in the coming years, the global stocktake is a critical moment for greater ambition and accelerating action.”

As University College London professor of climatology Mark Maslin explained, the report “makes it clear that the Paris agreement was a game-changer” but also countries’ greenhouse gas (GHG) emission reduction pledges are not in line with the 1.5°C target.

“The U.N. estimates that… we need to reduce global GHG emissions by 43% by 2030 and further by 60% by 2035 compared to 2019 levels and reach net-zero [carbon dioxide] emissions by 2050 globally,” Maslin summarized. “This is a huge ask given that greenhouse gas emissions were at their highest level ever in 2022.”

“All the technology exists to undergo the net-zero transformation but the huge increases in renewables, [electric vehicles], and batteries [have] to be even more rapid to make the huge cuts suggested by the U.N.—estimates are we need everything to happen five times faster,” he added.

The UNFCCC publication was released in preparation for the U.N. Climate Change Conference (COP28)—scheduled for November and December in Dubai, United Arab Emirates—where the first global stocktake will conclude.

“This global stocktake report provides clear direction on how we can meet the expectations of the Paris agreement by taking decisive action in this critical decade,” said COP28 President-Designate Sultan Al Jaber—whose selection for the summit post is controversial because he also heads the UAE’s Abu Dhabi National Oil Company. “We must urgently disrupt business as usual and unite like never before to move from ambition to action and from rhetoric to real results.”

The report also comes just ahead of U.N. Secretary-General António Guterres’ Climate Ambition Summit scheduled to begin on September 20 in New York City. In response, activists have planned the March to End Fossil Fuels on September 17.

Organizers of the NYC march are calling on U.S. President Joe Biden to stop federal approvals for new fossil fuel projects and repeal permits for “climate bombs” like the Willow project and the Mountain Valley Pipeline; phase out oil and gas drilling on public lands and waters; declare a climate emergency; and provide a just transition.

Advocacy groups supporting the march issued fresh demands for action on Friday in response to the UNFCCC publication.

“This report makes clear that President Biden is squandering precious time every second he fails to take bold action on fossil fuels,” said the Center for Biological Diversity’s Jean Su, who previously authored a document detailing how an emergency declaration would empower the administration to tackle the climate crisis. “Every day we’re seeing and feeling the harms of fossil-fueled climate change from extreme heat to deadly wildfires and devastating floods.”

“As leader of the world’s largest oil and gas producer, Biden has more power than anyone to stop expanding the fossil fuels driving this deadly crisis,” Su added. “Ahead of the U.N.’s Climate Ambition Summit, thousands of people will be in the streets of New York on September 17 for the March to End Fossil Fuels. This is the perfect opportunity for Biden to declare a climate emergency, use all his executive powers to phase out fossil fuels, and finally secure a legacy as a climate leader.”

“We need the biggest players to use their power to avert climate chaos, and to flex their muscle to protect human life rather than protecting corporate polluters.”

Greenpeace International policy coordinator Kaisa Kosonen on Friday called out governments across the globe, declaring that “our house is burning down and the people with the power to save us are still sipping coffee pretending it’s not happening.”

“No government can claim they didn’t know how to fix the climate problem,” she said. “They’ve been thrown a lifesaver again and again by scientists, and now we have this report. What the world is waiting for is action; leadership. We need the biggest players to use their power to avert climate chaos, and to flex their muscle to protect human life rather than protecting corporate polluters.”

Looking toward COP28, Kosonen argued that “at this year’s U.N. climate summit, governments must agree to end the use of oil, gas, and coal in a fast and fair way and make the polluters pay. Leaders can no longer smile and claim they support the Paris agreement and its 1.5°C warming limit, if they fail to give fossil fuels an end date and continue their expansion.”

“The solutions are ready—renewables are now the cheapest power source—but we’ve got to push the fossil fuel industry out of the way,” she stressed. “Fossil fuel corporations are holding us hostage, but their time’s up.”

The UNFCCC report and resulting calls for action follow a series of scientific findings throughout the week that also generated demands for a swift end to fossil fuels, including that Antarctica is warming more quickly than models project, this summer is the hottest on record, and last year greenhouse gas concentrations, global sea level, and ocean heat content all hit record highs.

Original article by JESSICA CORBETT republished from Common Dreams under Creative Commons (CC BY-NC-ND 3.0). 

Continue ReadingUN Puts Out ‘Truly Damning Report Card’ for Climate Action Before Global Summits

‘A Sobering Moment’: UN Warns Planet Could See Cataclysmic 2.9°C of Heating by 2100

Spread the love

Republished from Common Dreams under Creative Commons licence (CC BY-NC-ND 3.0).

“These alarming findings merit a transformative response at COP27,” said the president-designate of the upcoming climate talks.

JAKE JOHNSON October 26, 2022

A United Nations report published Wednesday ahead of November’s COP27 talks warns that planetary heating could reach a catastrophic 2.9°C by the end of the century without immediate action from the world’s largest polluters to dramatically rein in carbon emissions and transition away from fossil fuels.

The analysis by the U.N. Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) examines the climate commitments of the 193 national parties to the Paris climate accord, which sets out to limit warming to 1.5°C above preindustrial levels—an amount of heating that would still have devastating impacts across the world, particularly in poor and low-lying nations.

“Those who are expected to do more are far from doing enough, and the consequences of this is affecting lives and livelihoods across the globe.”

Even if countries meet their current climate targets—something many nations, including the United States, are not on track to achieve as climate advocates and scientists push for bolder action—global carbon emissions are projected to rise 10.6% by 2030 relative to 2010 levels and the planet is set to warm by an average of 2.1 to 2.9°C by 2100.

“The latest U.N. report is another reminder that we are still just throwing cups of water at a raging inferno,” Jamie Henn, director of Fossil Free Media, wrote on Twitter. “It’s past time for [U.S. President Joe Biden] to declare a climate emergency and use every power he has to get us off fossil fuels.”

The report notes that while “some progress” has been made toward reducing planet-warming emissions over the past year, “an urgent need for either a significant increase in the level of ambition of [nationally determined contributions] between now and 2030 or a significant overachievement” of climate action plans will be necessary to avert disastrous warming. The New York Times noted that “just 26 of 193 countries that agreed last year to step up their climate actions have followed through with more ambitious plans.”

“The downward trend in emissions expected by 2030 shows that nations have made some progress this year,” said Simon Stiell, the executive secretary of U.N. Climate Change. “But the science is clear and so are our climate goals under the Paris Agreement. We are still nowhere near the scale and pace of emission reductions required to put us on track toward a 1.5°C world.”

“To keep this goal alive,” Stiell added, “national governments need to strengthen their climate action plans now and implement them in the next eight years.”

The report was published as extreme weather made more intense by the climate emergency continues to ravage large swaths of the globe, taking lives, destroying communities, and exacerbating the intertwined crises of poverty, hunger, and inequality. Millions are reeling from devastating flooding in Nigeria and Pakistan while East Africa is in the midst of a starvation crisis intensified by prolonged drought.

The potential impacts of 2.9°C of warming are stark. As Scott Kulp, a computational scientist at Climate Central, told Buzzfeed last year, “an estimated 12% of the current global population living on land could be threatened under long-term future sea level rise under the 3°C scenario.”

“So that amounts to 810 million people,” Kulp noted.

Another expert, Rutgers University climate scientist Robert Kopp, told the outlet that “the more we push the system above 2°C—but we don’t know how much—the more the chance we trigger ice sheet processes that could rapidly increase sea level rise.”

Sameh Shoukry, Egypt’s minister of foreign affairs and president-designate of the upcoming COP27 talks, said in a statement that the new UNFCCC report is further “testimony to the fact that we are off track on achieving the Paris climate goal and keeping the 1.5 degrees within reach.”

“Raising ambition and urgent implementation is indispensable for addressing the climate crisis,” said Shoukry. “This includes cutting and removing emissions faster and at wider scope of economic sectors, to protect us from more severe adverse climate impacts and devastating loss and damage.”

“This is a sobering moment, and we are in a race against time,” Shoukry added. “Several of those who are expected to do more are far from doing enough, and the consequences of this is affecting lives and livelihoods across the globe. I am conscious that it is and should be a continuum of action until 2030 then 2050. However, these alarming findings merit a transformative response at COP27.”

Whether a summit sponsored by Coca-Cola and organized in part by a greenwashing public relations firm is up to the task of delivering such a response remains to be seen.

Republished from Common Dreams under Creative Commons licence (CC BY-NC-ND 3.0).

Continue Reading‘A Sobering Moment’: UN Warns Planet Could See Cataclysmic 2.9°C of Heating by 2100