Shrinking Oil Inventories Raise Fears of Prolonged Energy Crisis

- Global oil inventories are rapidly approaching “minimum operational levels,” with Asia already facing acute shortages.
- Analysts warn record inventory drawdowns, collapsing Hormuz exports, and rising summer fuel demand are tightening markets far faster than expected.
- Energy experts caution that prolonged underinvestment in new oil supply and continued disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz could trigger sustained high prices.
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Carlyle’s Currie had an even grimmer message for the U.S. government. “Every day that goes by, Iran’s negotiating leverage compounds. Why? Because inventories of oil … continue to drop,” he said, as quoted by CNBC. “The minute you think you won, that’s exactly when you know you probably lost, and their negotiating position at this point has never been stronger in the last 47 years.”
Some analysts are warning that once the full extent of the supply shortage becomes felt, prices will rise and stay high, likely for years. The reason, in addition to the immediate crunch of Middle Eastern supply, is a prolonged period of underinvestment in new supply from other parts of the world—something that OPEC+ has been warning about for at least three years now, to no avail. With estimates that it would take at least a month before Hormuz reopens, even with a peace deal in place, the prospect of an oil shortage in Europe has become all but a certainty, and the U.S. will likely see higher gas prices.
By Irina Slav for Oilprice.com









