Proroguing Parliament analysis

UK Prime Minister Boris ‘Bully Boy‘ Johnson is intending to prorogue the UK parliament.

My analysis is that there is no likelyhood of a no-deal Brexit and Johnson’s actions are intended to gain support of nihilist Brexiteers in a forthcoming general election.

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The farce of democracy

I apologise that I’m not that articulate that I can adequately express myself.

We exist in a tyranny masquerading as democracy.

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THIS IS NOT A DRILL ~ AN extinction rebellion HANDBOOK

My copy of THIS IS NOT A DRILL ~ AN extinction rebellion HANDBOOK has just arrived. Here’s an excerpt for you from ‘The Civil Resistance Model’ by Roger Hallam.

The key lesson about all structural political change is this: disruption works. Without disruption there is no economic cost, and without economic cost the guys running this world don’t really care. That’s why labour strikes are so effective against companies and why closing down a capital city is so effective against governments. You have to hit them where it hurts: in their pockets. That’s just the way it is.

The central dynamic here is the ‘dilemma’ action. When you create a dilemma for the authorities you open up a space of opportunity which was not there previously. Within that space you can get noticed, speak truth to power, negotiate, and more.

The authorities now have a serious dilemma: let people party on the streets, or opt for repression.

The lesson then is you don’t wait until everyone is ready, because you’ll be waiting for ever. You just need to go out and do it.

Rebellions are created because some people have had enough. They are all over it and don’t care if they’re successful or not. It’s sublime madness. It ‘s the only thing that will save us now.

I care about succeeding and it’s a matter of continuing until then.

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Time for rebellion on climate crisis :: Analysis, Strategy, Planning and Preparation

Image at Marble Arch attributed to Banksy following Extinction Rebellion protests 2019 reads 'From this moment despair ends and tactics begin'

I have proposed commencing rebellion to the Climate Crisis on 31 October 2019. A discussion of that proposal follows.

Unfortunately this blog is very one-directional. I get very little feedback to anything that I publish. It is however widely-read and can provide a lead. At the very least please consider what I am proposing.

The big problem with the date I proposed is that it coincides with the UK’s possible no-deal Brexit. Rebellion in UK could be misrepresented as opposition to Brexit by disgruntled anti-Brexiteers. I proposed this date on the basis that I do not expect Brexit to happen and it’s Halloween. Any action now in UK could be misrepresented as opposition to Brexit.

Analysis and proposed tactics needs only to be adequate and sufficient. I suggest that we need to rebel to show that climate destruction is no longer tolerated, we really are all in this together and that we have a responsibility to young people, the Planet (including nature) and future generations.

Traditional politics has proved to be totally incapable of dealing with the climate crisis. Indeed, it is even responsible for causing climate destruction. Fundamental changes are needed to protect our Planet.

Image of Extinction Rebellions pink boat at Bristol bridge protest 2019.

I am not associated with Extinction Rebellion although they have my support. I am impressed by their media representatives and pink boats.

Strategy

Planning and preparation is key. I suggest autonomous action targetting travel (particularly private transport) and being as effective and productive as possible which means trying to avoid arrest.

Bicycles and small motorcycles are good transport. Traffic lights can be disabled, roads can be blocked using large vehicles e.g. buses, stop vehicle and then disable. Planning and preparation – simple tools needed and practice.

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Time for rebellion on climate crisis :: I propose commencing 31 October 2019

I further propose that the strategy should be to prevent travel. If travel is prevented, everything is prevented. (Traffic lights, etc)

[Ed: Perhaps that date may be a mistake?] [Further ed: Just go for it?]

https://www.theguardian.com/music/2019/jul/25/time-to-rebel-greta-thunberg-makes-musical-debut-on-the-1975-track

The full text of Greta Thunberg’s speech.

We are right now in the beginning of a climate and ecological crisis.

And we need to call it what it is. An emergency.

We must acknowledge that we do not have the situation under control and that we don’t have all the solutions yet. Unless those solutions mean that we simply stop doing certain things.

We admit that we are losing this battle.

We have to acknowledge that the older generations have failed. All political movements in their present form have failed.

But homo sapiens have not yet failed.

Yes, we are failing, but there is still time to turn everything around. We can still fix this. We still have everything in our own hands.

But unless we recognise the overall failures of our current systems, we most probably don’t stand a chance.

We are facing a disaster of unspoken sufferings for enormous amounts of people. And now is not the time for speaking politely or focusing on what we can or cannot say. Now is the time to speak clearly.

Solving the climate crisis is the greatest and most complex challenge that homo sapiens have ever faced. The main solution, however, is so simple that even a small child can understand it. We have to stop our emissions of greenhouse gases.

And either we do that, or we don’t.

You say that nothing in life is black or white.

But that is a lie. A very dangerous lie.

Either we prevent a 1.5 degree of warming, or we don’t.

Either we avoid setting off that irreversible chain reaction beyond human control, or we don’t.

Either we choose to go on as a civilisation or we don’t.

That is as black or white as it gets.

Because there are no grey areas when it comes to survival.

Now we all have a choice.

We can create transformational action that will safeguard the living conditions for future generations.

Or we can continue with our business as usual and fail.

That is up to you and me.

And yes, we need a system change rather than individual change. But you cannot have one without the other.

If you look through history, all the big changes in society have been started by people at the grassroots level. People like you and me.

So, I ask you to please wake up and make the changes required possible. To do your best is no longer good enough. We must all do the seemingly impossible.

Today, we use about 100 million barrels of oil every single day. There are no politics to change that. There are no rules to keep that oil in the ground.

So, we can no longer save the world by playing by the rules. Because the rules have to be changed.

Everything needs to change. And it has to start today.

So, everyone out there, it is now time for civil disobedience. It is time to rebel.

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THE STATE WE’RE IN :: Distance and Speed

Draft, to be altered

Distance and speed.

Travel and transportation is all about burning fossil fuels and the consequent destruction of our planet.

It’s all so unnecessary. In the United Stares they even fcking commute by plane …

People are travelling hundreds of miles totally unnecessarily. Your <whatever-skilled-employee> is travelling from A to B while your other <same-skilled-employee> is travelling from B to A.

In my local economy supermarket (Aldi) there were fcking onions from Australia and New Zealand. They sell siht from China which is absolute garbage before it’s even sold.

Draft, likely to be altered.

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Climate Crisis :: Google sucking up to the rich and famous destroying the planet

We need big influential companies like Google to stop sucking up to rich polluting, climate destroying cnuts and start behaving responsibly …

Google Camp 2019 contributed in no small way to destroying the planet inviting rich, planet-destroying cnuts to destroy the planet more to discuss the climate crisis …

They could have instead of inviting rich climate-destroying criminals to Sicily in their private jets and ridiculous ‘super-yachts’ simply spent their money giving away really slinky bikes to persuade youngsters away from driving cars(?)

Google could also support Greta Thunberg …

I suggest to Google that they don’t have any more of these climate-destroying events.

We also have to make clear to these rich climate-destroying criminals that private jets, super-yachts and space tourism is not tolerated.

[ed: Cities and ports have got to start refusing entry to superyachts]

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Climate Crisis :: Top ten UK’s hottest years all since 2002

6/8/19 I was hoping that this was clear and unambiguous …

Met Office

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Climate Crisis :: 12 years to save the planet? Make that 18 months

https://www.bbc.com/news/science-environment-48964736

… [T]here’s a growing consensus that the next 18 months will be critical in dealing with the global heating crisis, among other environmental challenges.

Last year, the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) reported that to keep the rise in global temperatures below 1.5C this century, emissions of carbon dioxide would have to be cut by 45% by 2030.

But today, observers recognise that the decisive, political steps to enable the cuts in carbon to take place will have to happen before the end of next year.

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Donald Trump calls majority black Baltimore ‘disgusting, rat-infested mess’

Donald Trump has attacked a majority-black district represented by an African-American lawmaker as a ‘disgusting, rat and rodent-infested mess’.

Democratic House speaker Nancy Pelosi accused the president of ‘racist attacks’ after a stream of tweets targeting congress critic representative Elijah Cummings.

Mr Trump lashed out at the powerful House Oversight Committee chairman, claiming his Baltimore-area district in Maryland, US, is ‘considered the worst run and most dangerous anywhere in the United States’.

Ms Pelosi was among Democrats to slam the tweets, saying Mr Cummings was a ‘champion in the Congress and the country for civil rights and economic justice, a beloved leader in Baltimore, and deeply valued colleague’.

She added: ‘We all reject racist attacks against him and support his steadfast leadership.’

Comment by dizzy: What an a*****e

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Trump says he’s considering declaring Antifa an ‘Organization of Terror,’ and that it would ‘make it easier for police to do their job’

https://www.businessinsider.com/trump-antifa-tweet-organization-terror-2019-7?r=US&IR=T

President Donald Trump took aim at the radical left-wing movement Antifa on Twitter Saturday, writing that the organization was being considered for dedication as a terror organization.

Trump waved off the group as a collection of “gutless Radical Left Wack Jobs” who had enacted violence on “only non-fighters.”

“Consideration is being given to declaring ANTIFA, the gutless Radical Left Wack Jobs who go around hitting (only non-fighters) people over the heads with baseball bats, a major Organization of Terror (along with MS-13 & others),” Trump wrote. “Would make it easier for police to do their job!”

Comment by dizzy: What an a*****e

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THE STATE WE’RE IN :: Capitalism

We can’t escape the fact that we all exist under the all-encompassing system known as Capitalism. Capitalism is about concentrating power in and enriching a tiny minority at the expense of the vast majority. Capitalism involves huge inequalities so that the vast majority of people are denied any opportunity to realise their potential.

The climate crisis – the state we’re in – has developed under Capitalism. Capitalism is concerned only with creating and accumulating private and corporate wealth. Capitalism has no concern for the environment or the climate crisis it has created. Big oil knew fifty years ago that it was destroying the planet and did it regardless. There were groups and projects promoting ‘alternative’, renewable energy in the 1970s.

There is a huge problem that many people cannot even imagine a system other than Capitalism. It is regarded as the natural order because it is so pervasive. Business as usual continues despite the climate crisis because people are so set in their ways/thinking.

There is the further huge problem that we are constrained by Capitalism. Capitalism is creating wealth by destroying the planet through burning fossil fuels. This is the reason for calls for system change.

Real wealth is about having good health, friends and relationships, about leading a good life, caring for others and enjoying a healthy, natural environment.

We should realise that Capitalism is not the natural order and that is is instead permitted, allowed [11.55am tolerated] to destroy the planet.

Likely to be revised.  

[11.55am Police helicopter harassing me since I posted this. Policeman in car harassing me yesterday.]

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Climate Crisis :: ‘No doubt left’ about scientific consensus on global warming, say experts

https://www.theguardian.com/science/2019/jul/24/scientific-consensus-on-humans-causing-global-warming-passes-99

The scientific consensus that humans are causing global warming is likely to have passed 99%, according to the lead author of the most authoritative study on the subject, and could rise further after separate research that clears up some of the remaining doubts.

Three studies published in Nature and Nature Geoscience use extensive historical data to show there has never been a period in the last 2,000 years when temperature changes have been as fast and extensive as in recent decades.

It had previously been thought that similarly dramatic peaks and troughs might have occurred in the past, including in periods dubbed the Little Ice Age and the Medieval Climate Anomaly. But the three studies use reconstructions based on 700 proxy records of temperature change, such as trees, ice and sediment, from all continents that indicate none of these shifts took place in more than half the globe at any one time.

“This paper should finally stop climate change deniers claiming that the recent observed coherent global warming is part of a natural climate cycle. This paper shows the truly stark difference between regional and localised changes in climate of the past and the truly global effect of anthropogenic greenhouse emissions,” said Mark Maslin, professor of climatology at University College London.

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Anti-Capitalist, Anti-Fascist, Anti-Racist

No apology is due for being anti-Capitalist, anti-Fascist and anti-Racist. That’s how it should be.

I hold Capitalism responsible for destroying the planet because Capitalism is concerned only with making profit.

I regard Anti-Fascism as subsuming Anti-Racism.

12.47p.m. I am writing in a personal capacity and should not be regarded as any way proscriptive. I am proud to be anti-Capitalist, anti-Fascist and anti-Racist.

I expect team Corbyn to do well in any elections. Corbyn has demonstrated that there is a need for traditional Socialist representation. Combined with real action on the climate crisis and an opposition tearing itself apart, Corbyn and the Labour party are the winners.

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John Reid – then New Labour Home Secretary says they “just don’t get it”

From 2006, then Home Secretary John Reid.

http://www.demos.co.uk/files/johnreidsecurityandfreedom.pdf

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2006/aug/10/terrorism.humanrights

John Reid yesterday accused the government’s anti-terror critics of putting national security at risk by their failure to recognise the serious nature of the threat facing Britain. “They just don’t get it,” he said.

The home secretary yesterday gave the thinktank Demos his strongest hint yet that a new round of anti-terror legislation is on the way this autumn by warning that traditional civil liberty arguments were not so much wrong as just made for another age.

“Sometimes we may have to modify some of our own freedoms in the short term in order to prevent their misuse and abuse by those who oppose our fundamental values and would destroy all of our freedoms in the modern world,” he said.

Mr Reid said Britain was now facing “probably the most sustained period of severe threat since the end of the second world war” and that the country was facing a new breed of ruthless “unconstrained international terrorists”.

The European human rights convention had been drawn up 50 years ago to protect against fascist states but now the threat came from “fascist individuals” unconstrained by such conventions, agreements or standards. Everyone across the political, media, judicial and public spectrum needed to understand the depth and magnitude of the threat.

The majority of the public understood its seriousness but there were those who “just don’t get it” …

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Climate Crisis :: It’s happening, it’s now

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Climate Crisis :: July on course to be hottest month ever, say climate scientists

https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2019/jul/16/july-on-course-to-be-hottest-month-ever-say-climate-scientists

Record temperatures across much of the world over the past two weeks could make July the hottest month ever measured on Earth, according to climate scientists.

The past fortnight has seen freak heat in the Canadian Arctic, crippling droughts in Chennai and Harare and forest fires that forced thousands of holidaymakers to abandon campsites in southern France and prompted the air force in Indonesia to fly cloud-busting missions in the hope of inducing rain.

If the trends of the first half of this month continue, it will beat the previous record from July 2017 by about 0.025C, according to calculations by Karsten Haustein, a climate scientist at the University of Oxford, and others.

This follows the warmest-ever June, which was confirmed this week by data from the US space agency Nasa, following Europe’s Copernicus satellite monitoring system.

The scientists stressed that this outcome is uncertain because conditions could change in the second half of the month, but it underscores a broader pattern of steadily rising temperatures caused by increasing emissions of carbon dioxide from power plants, deforestation, cars, planes and other sources.

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Climate Crisis :: David Attenborough “We cannot be radical enough …”

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Climate Crisis :: New findings on ocean warming: 5 questions answered

New findings on ocean warming: 5 questions answered

The ocean absorbs about 90 percent of the excess heat produced as climate change warms the earth. Image Catalog
Scott Denning, Colorado State University

Editor’s note: A new study by scientists in the United States, China, France and Germany estimates that the world’s oceans have absorbed much more excess heat from human-induced climate change than researchers had estimated up to now. This finding suggests that global warming may be even more advanced than previously thought. Atmospheric scientist Scott Denning explains how the new report arrived at this result and what it implies about the pace of climate change.

1. How do scientists measure ocean temperature and estimate how climate change is affecting it?

They use thermometers attached to thousands of bobbing robots floating at controlled depths throughout the oceans. This system of “Argo floats” was launched in the year 2000 and there are now about 4,000 of the floating instruments.

About once every 10 days, they cycle from the surface to a depth of 6,500 feet, then bob back up to the surface to transmit their data by satellite. Each year this network collects about 100,000 measurements of the three-dimensional temperature distribution of the oceans.

The Argo measurements show that about 93 percent of the global warming caused by burning carbon for fuel is felt as changes in ocean temperature, while only a very small amount of this warming occurs in the air.

Normal cycle of an Argo float collecting ocean temperature and salinity data. International Argo Program, CC BY-ND

2. How dramatically do the findings in this study differ from levels of ocean warming that the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change has reported?

The new study finds that since 1991, the oceans have warmed about 60 percent faster than the average rate of warming estimated by studies summarized by the IPCC, which are based on data from Argo floats. This is a big deal.

Most of the difference comes from the earliest part of this period, before there were enough Argo floats in the oceans to properly represent the three-dimensional distribution of global water temperatures. The new data are complete all the way back to 1991, but the Argo data were really sparse until the mid-2000s.

The implication of faster ocean warming is that the effect of carbon dioxide on global warming is greater than we’d thought. We already knew that adding CO2 to the air was warming the world very rapidly. And the IPCC just warned in a special report that limiting global warming to 1.5 degrees Celsius (2.7 degrees Fahrenheit) above pre-industrial levels – a target that would avert many extreme impacts on humans and ecosystems – would require quickly reducing and eventually eliminating coal, oil and gas from the world energy supply. This study doesn’t change any of that, but it means we will need to eliminate fossil fuels even faster.

To limit global warming to 1.5 degrees Celsius, the IPCC warns that greenhouse gas emissions would need to be drastically reduced over approximately the next decade. IPCC, CC BY-ND

3. What did these researchers do differently to arrive at a higher number?

They have measured tiny changes since 1991 in the concentrations of a few gases in the air – oxygen, nitrogen and carbon dioxide – with incredibly high precision. This is really hard to do, because the changes are extremely small compared to the large amounts already in the air.

Some of these gases from the air dissolve into the oceans. The water’s temperature dictates how much it can absorb. As water warms, the amount of a gas that can dissolve in it decreases – that’s why a soda or beer left open on the kitchen table goes flat. That same temperature dependence allowed the scientists to calculate total changes in global ocean heat content from 1991 to now, just using very precise measurements of the air itself.

4. If this study is accurate, what does it suggest we should expect in the way of major climate change impacts in the coming decades?

This study did not address climate impacts, but they are already well known. As the world warms, more water vapor evaporates from both oceans and land. This means that when big storms develop, there’s more water vapor in the air for them to “work with,” which will produce more extreme rain and snow and resulting winds.

Greater warming will mean increased water demand for crops and forests and pastures, more stress on irrigation and urban water supplies, and reduced food production. More water demand means more forest fires and smoke, shorter winters with less mountain snowpack, and increased stress on ecosystems, cities and the world economy. Because of these effects, nearly every government in the world has committed to rapid emissions cuts to limit global warming.

What this study suggests is that the climate is more sensitive to greenhouse gases than we previously thought. This means that in order to avoid the worst consequences of climate change, emissions will need to be cut faster and deeper.

Climate scientist Katharine Hayhoe explains the consequences of two degrees of warming above pre-industrial levels.

5. How will we know whether these findings hold up?

There are other groups making precise gas measurements, and many of them have data going back to the 1990s. Others will repeat the analyses made by these authors and check their results. There will also be careful work to reconcile the increased warming rate of the oceans with the Argo temperature data, the surface air temperature record, atmospheric data from balloons and measurements made from satellites. The real world must be consistent with all of the observations taken together, not just a subset.

This study very cleverly used data from the composition of the air itself going back nearly 30 years. We didn’t have Argo floats back then, but air samples are still available that can be analyzed decades later. Using a longer record of warming is much better for estimating the rate, because it’s less sensitive to year-to-year variations than a shorter record.

These scientists have given us a new and independent way to assess the sensitivity of long-term global warming to changes in atmospheric CO2 levels. I expect the findings will indeed hold up, and that we will be hearing a lot more about this new method in the future.The Conversation

Scott Denning, Professor of Atmospheric Science, Colorado State University

This article is republished from The Conversation under a Creative Commons license. Read the original article.

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Climate Crisis :: Global heating: London to have climate similar to Barcelona by 2050

https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2019/jul/10/global-heating-london-similar-climate-barcelona-2050

Nearly 80% of cities to undergo dramatic and potentially disastrous changes, study finds

London will have a similar climate in three decades’ time to that of Barcelona today, according to research – but if that seems enticing, a warning: the change could be accompanied by severe drought.

Madrid will feel like present-day Marrakech by 2050, and Stockholm like Budapest, according to a report on the likely impacts of the climate crisis. Around the world, cities that are currently in temperate or cold zones in the northern hemisphere will resemble cities more than 600 miles (1,000km) closer to the equator, with damaging effects on health and infrastructure.

Among other analogues, the study suggests Moscow will resemble Sofia, Seattle will feel like San Francisco and New York will be comparable to Virginia Beach. The researchers have created an interactive map showing hundreds of cities and their 2050 counterparts.

Water shortages will affect scores of cities now in temperate climates as a result of the global heating, which is forecast to be by as much as 3.5C in European cities in summer and 4.7C in winter.

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